Elections 2009 - Predictions

AB Bardhan says "If Congress and BJP together gets less than half the seats (272 the magic number), then there is a very good possiblity of a Third Front Government. It is quiet possible, the BJP and Congress as individual parties might get around 260 seats (Even that might be a higher number). But how likely is the third front still.

Mayawati vs Mulayam, Jayalalitha vs Karunanidhi, Communists vs Mamata, Nitish vs Laloo, TDP vs Chiranjeevi, NC vs PDP and parties like Shiv Sena, Akali Dal might not join Third Front. Given these permutations and combinations, the third ront with best of performance and if it manages to retain its fold in spite of the fight for PM post can have a maximum of 180 seats. They would need Congress support from outside to form Government.And to ensure the alliance stays they might have to make someone less powerful and more convincing to the post of PM as other top leaders of the 3rd front will cancel each other out. Sitaram Yechury might be their bet if it comes to it is my guess.

And It might happen, Congress might support the third front (though it wouldnt be the third front then). Congress though it projects Dr.MMS as the PM, it might not really want him to be PM. It doesnt want their Prince Royal to be in a coalition government, but doesnt want to increase chances of any one else as a Powerful leader either. Winning an Election with the promise of a person as PM is definitely a threat to their power centres even with Dr.MMS. That might explain why the Grand Old Party is not to keen on alliances this time around, not going the extra mile to form the government. After all a Third front government with all its instabilities will ensure the next election throws a clearer winner like in 1991 and 1998. They would hope to capitalise on it for their Prince Royal to take over. They would probably support third front for 2-3 years and pull out if the alliance doesnt break by itself.

I for one hope the congress does form the government this time around so that LK for once realises his dream of PM post is lost and he leaves the scene. This will allow the BJP to re energise with some better leaders may be Arun Jaitley, Narendra Modi and Sushma Swaraj can be their main leaders. And by 2014 or earlier when Elections beckon congress would have built enough Anti-Incumbency to be rooted from power and its Prince Royal's image be tarnished. And the BJP might form a stronger government with a better majority. If that situation presents to the Prince Royal instead of the BJP, he might destroy India the way his illustrious father ruined it earlier.